In January 532 AD, Emperor Justinian I was ready to flee Constantinople.

The city was burning. The Nika Riots – which had started as a dispute over chariot racing – had exploded into a full-scale rebellion. Half of Constantinople was in flames, including the original Hagia Sophia. Rioters had proclaimed a new emperor. Justinian's advisors urged him to escape while he still could.

His wife, Empress Theodora, stopped him with words that would echo through history: "Purple makes the finest burial shroud." Die as an emperor, she meant, rather than live as a coward.

Justinian stayed. His general Belisarius brutally suppressed the riots. Between 30,000 and 35,000 people were killed. Justinian survived, but barely.

What Justinian did next showed remarkable restraint.

He didn't seek revenge tours or grand military campaigns. Instead, he turned inward. For nearly eight years, he focused on rebuilding what was broken. Constantinople rose from the ashes methodically. The magnificent Hagia Sophia was constructed – ambitious, yes, but within careful budget constraints.

This was an emperor who had nearly lost everything and learned caution from it.

By the early 540s, Constantinople gleamed. The empire was stable. The riots were a distant memory.

And then Justinian changed.

He became obsessed with Renovatio Imperii – the Restoration of the Empire. He wanted to reconquer the lost Western Roman Empire: North Africa, Italy, Spain. The territories that had slipped away over the previous century.

The Western kingdoms looked weak – the opportunity seemed perfect. His court expected glory. He wanted a legacy that went beyond "the emperor who survived a riot and built a pretty church."

Most dangerously, success had made him believe: "We're stronger now. We can handle this. This time is different."

The same man who had spent years carefully rebuilding Constantinople suddenly abandoned all that caution.

The conquests began.

In 533-534, he took North Africa from the Vandals. Quick victory. The treasury could handle it. Early euphoria set in.

Then came Italy a year later. What was supposed to be a swift campaign against the Ostrogoths turned into a twenty-year nightmare. The war dragged on, consuming resources, lives, and gold. Italy was devastated. The treasury was drained.

But Justinian didn't stop. He pushed into Spain in 554, stretching the empire even thinner.

Meanwhile, reality crashed in from other directions. Persia attacked in the East. The Justinianic Plague hit, killing millions. Slavs and Bulgars invaded the Balkans.

The empire was bleeding from multiple wounds, but Justinian kept pushing for more territory.

His risk capacity hadn't changed. The empire's fundamentals hadn't suddenly improved. But his behavior had completely shifted because things had looked good for a few years.

Justinian died in 565 AD. Within three years, Italy fell to the Lombards. Most of his Western conquests unraveled quickly. The empire he left behind was financially exhausted, militarily overextended, and vulnerable.

The temporary victories weren't worth the permanent damage.

The discipline that had saved him after the Nika Riots – the caution, the measured approach, the focus on fundamentals – had been abandoned the moment things started looking good.

Over years of observing investor behavior, I've noticed a similar pattern repeatedly – a momentary loss of clarity during periods of euphoria. I've seen investors painfully rebalance their portfolios during a crisis, making difficult decisions to get through the storm, only to get carried away at the first sign of euphoria.

If you've been watching the Indian markets lately, this story might feel uncomfortably familiar.

For the past year, markets have been relatively flat. Maybe your portfolio hasn't moved much. You may have gone through the pain of being patient or you stuck to your asset allocation, maintained discipline & stayed the course.

Now, suddenly, the narrative has shifted. We're seeing absurd predictions of Nifty levels being thrown around. “Experts” talking about going all in. The euphoria is building.

The external pressures are mounting: "Everyone else is making money now." "This is finally our moment after a flat year." "The opportunity won't last." "This time is different."

What you should remember now more than ever - 

Your risk tolerance hasn't changed.

Your risk capacity hasn't changed.

Your financial goals haven't changed.

The discipline that helped you stay calm through a flat market is the same discipline you need now. Actually, you need it more now.

Justinian's mistake wasn't that he was ambitious. It was that he abandoned the principles that had saved him the moment circumstances improved. He let external euphoria override internal discipline.

Market sentiment is not the same as your personal financial situation. A few good weeks don't change your time horizon, your liquidity needs, or your ability to handle losses.

The caution that protects you in uncertainty should guide you in euphoria. 

What to do now:

We’re not saying don't participate in market growth. We’re saying don't let market euphoria dictate your personal risk decisions.

If your asset allocation says 60% equity, 30% debt, 10% other – and you've been maintaining that through the flat period – then that's still your allocation now. Rebalance if needed, but don't abandon the framework.

If people around you are making different choices, that's fine. Their risk profile isn't yours. Their time horizon isn't yours. Their financial situation isn't yours.

The emperor who survived the Nika Riots through discipline forgot that lesson the moment things looked good.

Let’s not be that emperor shall we?

Stay the course. Stick to your plan. Let the external noise stay external.

Because the market will change again. It always does. And when it does, you'll be glad you remembered what Justinian forgot.

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Wizr is an AMFI registered Mutual Fund Distributor. 

We understand that navigating over 2000 mutual fund schemes and building a financial plan that works for you can feel overwhelming. You don't have to figure this out alone. If you'd like to discuss your portfolio, your goals, or simply talk about money – head over to getwizr.com and schedule a call with us. On the house, of course.

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